Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 14.472156 17.631487 21.136573 25.288835 30.047789 35.305979 41.528539
2025-11-09 9.871436 13.923490 18.914751 25.404694 33.502715 43.154392 55.398114
2025-11-16 7.223178 11.507166 17.248028 25.264771 35.910390 49.293223 67.091153
2025-11-23 5.322278 9.509015 15.569621 24.580389 37.194217 53.761672 76.644416
2025-11-30 4.360008 8.598113 15.143501 25.381789 40.320747 60.612672 89.447817
2025-12-07 3.380465 7.405943 14.055824 25.002658 41.637929 64.974428 99.037266
2025-12-14 2.747621 6.639633 13.474742 25.244568 43.766595 70.466310 110.316224
2025-12-21 2.036951 5.532803 12.124246 24.064295 43.589658 72.573591 116.869618
2025-12-28 1.719935 5.128020 11.918406 24.697761 46.195890 78.794612 129.467455
2026-01-04 1.422797 4.680750 11.551767 24.988820 48.233534 84.217755 141.073833
2026-01-11 1.195726 4.329689 11.306405 25.444704 50.532888 90.100599 153.534358
2026-01-18 1.027318 4.075334 11.210259 26.144278 53.253845 96.718104 167.291264
2026-01-25 0.793485 3.577013 10.554215 25.798671 54.304707 100.985718 178.023131
2026-02-01 0.631668 3.225765 10.162016 25.926155 56.201774 106.721942 191.295113
2026-02-08 0.489371 2.866149 9.672587 25.784624 57.578104 111.639935 203.434694
2026-02-15 0.356318 2.457378 8.966544 25.089345 57.858803 114.722257 212.746115
2026-02-22 0.301010 2.330739 8.965802 25.903546 61.001627 122.710154 230.123728
2026-03-01 0.222924 2.042767 8.456535 25.518372 61.805699 126.729441 241.198876
2026-03-08 0.175801 1.870513 8.237749 25.764140 63.838238 132.924694 255.990156
2026-03-15 0.114317 1.542872 7.454888 24.564962 62.888497 133.836814 262.065643
2026-03-22 0.093383 1.457582 7.429207 25.208600 65.713749 141.532760 279.654131
2026-03-29 0.072298 1.342881 7.274162 25.504313 67.826058 148.012303 295.360145
2026-04-05 0.056968 1.254232 7.188859 25.967462 70.309734 155.241562 312.517844